Reflections on the date of January 1, 1976
It’s a quiet, cold and bright New Year’s Day today. I’ve been busy but this morning I have the chance to breathe and reflect on a thought that flashed in my mind as the day approached. One quarter of the 21st century is now complete, a fact that seems to have been lost in the buzz about Jeffrey Epstein and Meghan Markle.
What does this milestone mean? In one sense, nothing. In other countries, years are counted from the birth of Buddha. For them, 2025 is 2568 (just add 543).
Yet, large organizations often base their vision statements on years with a nice round number in the Christian calendar. For example, our chosen branch of the armed services published a vison statement in 1998 called Coast Guard 2020. It set forth the need for national security cutters that could project law enforcement authority in distant regions as well as enhanced C4ISR (command, control, communications, computing, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance). Leave me a comment if you’d like me to share it with you.
I’ve never seen an organization go back to their old vision statements and report on progress. It’s a wasted opportunity to improve institutional foresight by evaluating what they got right and what they missed. Yet, it’s clear that the Coast Guard did change significantly in the past 25 years and that the long-range capabilities it developed are essential instruments of national security in today’s geopolitical realities.
So, one thing about a time period of 25 years is that is a useful yardstick for measuring change. Why don’t we look at the last quarter of the 20st century and the first quarter of the 21st? That might help us to navigate the tides and currents ahead of us.
For the time period between 1975 and 2000, the trend that stands out to me was the rapid rise of computational power and information availability. When our class reported to CGA, we were issued slide rules and trained how to use them (although we never did.) Later, we learned to program on punch cards and to use an early version of the internet developed by ARPA (Advanced Research Projects Agency.) By the end the century, relational databases were the thing and email was emerging. Computers were becoming very personal.
The implications of those changes played out in the next 25 years. The major trend that I see is the incredible rise in personal power – power to access information, to choose among many options, and to promote a distinct personal identity. Also, resources seem far less constrained than they used to be. With a spoken word, an alternate reality can be envisioned and even made tangible, to a degree. It is god-like power.
Likely then, in the next 25 years, personal power will continue to expand, which implies that centralized power will diminish. The power to edit genetic strings will likely be too tempting to resist, although some rules will be set and enforced, more or less. Competition for resources will continue to decline, as human population stabilizes and national identity becomes less a part of personal identity. Cultural differences will become less distinct, and many people will reflect a blend of traditional cultures.
At the same time, people will yearn for the authentic and tangible as an antidote to the virtual and algorithmic. I saw something like this in the 1970s as a reaction to the culture shocks of the 1960s.
As Coast Guard officers, your strong personal associations, long-standing traditions, and mastery of the nautical arts will have great value in a culture awash with slop. The sea yields to no man nor to AI. I encourage you to lean into that. Develop an authentic liking for the sea and its lore. Master the old ways, even shooting stars by sextant. Technology from the 18th century will probably seem irrelevant and following the chain of command will probably offend your personal sensibility. But if you can see past the cues of your culture, you will gain a treasure safe from time and you will leave a legacy to those who follow you.
Happy New Year!
Robert